Functional Modelling of Complex Systems
A route from systems thinking, SEIPS and FRAM towards executable functional models that connect system purpose, operational evidence and analysis.
Open PDFResearch & insights
Ideas made open for examination.
Papers, working notes, essays and presentations from Cambrensis on functional systems modelling, AI-supported analysis and the behaviour of complex safety-critical systems.
A note on status: these publications include research papers, essays, presentations and working hypotheses. Preliminary incident analyses are identified as such and should not be read as official findings.
Theme 01
Functional systems modelling
Developing a practical language for representing functions, couplings, variability and emergence in complex sociotechnical systems.
Turons: Executable Functions, Couplings and Functional Resonance in Systems
Introduces open, stateful functions and late-binding couplings as building blocks for executable analysis of system variability and resonance.
Open PDFComplex Systems Thinking
A presentation on moving beyond linear bows and arrows towards functional modelling of interacting, adaptive system behaviour.
Open PDFThe Evolution of Functional Systems Modelling
Traces the development from purposeful inquiry to data-linked models capable of examining emergent system behaviour.
Open PDFInteractive Functional System Modelling II
Develops the case for executable modelling of emergence and describes how analysts can explore changing functional conditions interactively.
Open PDFTheme 02
AI, digital twins & risk
Examining where AI and digital methods can strengthen structured analysis, and where claims must remain bounded by evidence and human judgement.
From HAZOP to Risk Intelligence
Asks whether governed AI, explicit assumptions and functional evidence can restore confidence in quantitative risk assessment.
Open PDFIs AI Really Doing HAZOP, or Something More Limited?
Distinguishes automated interpretation of P&IDs and local deviation analysis from the wider disciplined inquiry required for a full HAZOP.
Open PDFEpistemic Digital Twins
Proposes a digital twin centred on what is known, observed, inferred and uncertain, with provenance retained across the model.
Open PDFCybersecurity as an Application Domain for Quantum-Assisted FRAM Instantiation Analysis
Explores how functional instantiations and quantum-assisted computation might support analysis of dynamic cybersecurity conditions.
Open PDFTheme 03
Human performance & healthcare
Looking beyond simple human-versus-technology accounts towards cognition, adaptation and structured intelligence in operational work.
The OODA Loop as a FRAM Model of Adaptive Orientation
Represents OODA as a 16-function model and connects adaptive orientation with active inference, generative models and the Markov blanket.
Open PDFBeyond Doctor versus AI
Argues for structured clinical intelligence in which clinicians and governed AI contribute distinct capabilities to a transparent workflow.
Open PDFCan We Be Unconsciously Conscious?
Considers whether behaviour labelled as human error may arise from the complexity of cerebral circuitry and interacting modes of awareness.
Open PDFTheme 04
Foundations, perspectives & cases
Historical reflection, conceptual inquiry and applied case analysis used to test how safety science frames evidence, uncertainty and explanation.
50 Years of Safety “Science”?
A personal view of the field from its early development, asking what safety science has learned and what remains unresolved.
Open PDFWriting Down Becoming
Positions Functional Systems Modelling as a missing notation between musical scores, changing systems and machine reasoning.
Open PDFAn Operational Exploration of the Time Paradox
Examines how time is experienced and represented when system events, action and observation unfold together.
Open PDFArtemis II, NASA, and the Problem with a Risk Number
Explores why a single risk estimate cannot fully express uncertainty, evidence quality and barrier performance in developmental missions.
Open PDFBlue Origin Explosion: Preliminary Working Hypothesis
A testable FRAM-HAZOP hypothesis for a cryogenic or base-region event. It is an exploratory analysis, not an official investigation finding.
Open PDFSelected archive
Papers retained from the earlier Cambrensis site
Earlier work that remains relevant to the development of functional analysis, quantitative assurance and systemic investigation.
A Functional Systems Approach to Hazard and Operability Analysis
Extending process hazard analysis through functions, couplings and operational context.
Open archived paperFunctional System Integrity Assessment
Examining the assumptions behind conventional layers of protection.
Open archived paperThe Buncefield Disaster
A case study in safety failures, systemic oversight and barrier performance.
Open archived paper