BOP camera, sea floor 1,522 m
Schematic, not to scale: depths are compressed and the BOP is enlarged. Drag to orbit, scroll to zoom.
The Macondo barrier model (R03d) run against a stylised Deepwater Horizon. Replay the night of 20 April 2010, or run Monte Carlo trials of the six barriers with the work-as-imagined or work-as-done parameters.
| Stage reached | Layers got past | Work as imagined | Work as done | WAD vs WAI |
|---|
Choose Barrier trials, then run one trial to watch it on the rig, or 1,000 to build the frequencies.
| Outcome | Simulated | Expected |
|---|
Ingress is per demand. The other rows are conditional on ingress, as in R04, so they are not multiplied by the ingress rate.
Times are approximate rig time. Select an event to jump to it.
| Parameter | FMV key (function) | WAI | WAD | Basis |
|---|
Model: Macondo_Barrier_WAI_R03d / WAD_R03d.xfmv, built on the R02 full-event model and the R04 LOPA parameter register. Most values are research assumptions. Ignition with protections working comes from IOGP 434-6 scenario 27. The work-as-done protection failures and the ignition probability once both protections fail come from the US Coast Guard Report of Investigation (2011), Volume I. Event times are compiled from the R02 annotations, the USCG report and BP's 2010 investigation. The rig geometry is schematic: a twin-pontoon semi-submersible, not a survey of the real vessel.